Appendix: Projected Population and Health Worker Needs in 2050 for the 57 Human Resources for Health Crisis Countries

Appendix: Projected Population and Health Worker Needs in 2050 for the 57 Human Resources for Health Crisis Countries
Country
Projected
population
(thousands)
in 2050, low
variant1
Projected # of
health workers
needed in 2050,
low variant2
Projected
population
(thousands)
in 2050, high
variant1
Projected # of
health workers
needed in 2050,
high variant3
Difference in
# of health
workers needed
in 2050 between
low and high
variant4
% increase in
health workers
needed in
2050 between
low and high
variant5
Afghanistan 68,141 156,724 84,826 195,100 38,376 24%
Angola 37,095 85,319 47,971 110,333 25,015 29%
Bangladesh 165,966 381,722 226,325 520,548 138,826 36%
Benin 19,284 44,353 24,340 55,982 11,629 26%
Bhutan 826 1,900 1,114 2,562 662 35%
Burkina Faso 41,885 96,336 51,832 119,214 22,878 24%
Burundi 11,933 27,446 15,607 35,896 8,450 31%
Cambodia 16,234 37,338 21,964 50,517 13,179 35%
Cameroon 33,588 77,252 43,744 100,611 23,359 30%
Central African Republic 7,340 16,882 9,529 21,917 5,035 30%
Chad 24,207 55,676 30,494 70,136 14,460 26%
Comoros 1,502 3,455 1,911 4,395 941 27%
Congo 7,720 17,756 9,965 22,920 5,164 29%
Côte d’Ivoire 35,655 82,007 46,056 105,929 23,922 29%
Democratic Republic of the Congo 131,208 301,778 167,040 384,192 82,414 27%
Djibouti 1,418 3,261 1,837 4,225 964 30%
El Salvador 6,428 14,784 8,934 20,548 5,764 39%
Equatorial Guinea 1,316 3,027 1,683 3,871 844 28%
Eritrea 10,143 23,329 13,090 30,107 6,778 29%
Ethiopia 125,834 289,418 166,036 381,883 92,465 32%
Gambia 3,548 8,160 4,557 10,481 2,321 28%
Ghana 43,149 99,243 55,488 127,622 28,380 29%
Guinea 20,398 46,915 25,782 59,299 12,383 26%
Guinea-Bissau 2,831 6,511 3,561 8,190 1,679 26%
Haiti 12,200 28,060 16,316 37,527 9,467 34%
Honduras 11,151 25,647 14,907 34,286 8,639 34%
India 1,457,433 3,352,096 1,952,664 4,491,127 1,139,031 34%
Indonesia 252,677 581,157 338,518 778,591 197,434 34%
Iraq 73,817 169,779 93,533 215,126 45,347 27%
Kenya 84,975 195,443 109,699 252,308 56,865 29%
Lao People’s Democratic Republic 7,152 16,450 9,736 22,393 5,943 36%
Lesotho 2,331 5,361 3,290 7,567 2,206 41%
Liberia 8,558 19,683 10,833 24,916 5,233 27%
Madagascar 47,021 108,148 60,605 139,392 31,243 29%
Malawi 44,531 102,421 55,207 126,976 24,555 24%
Mali 37,719 86,754 46,794 107,626 20,873 24%
Mauritania 6,252 14,380 7,972 18,336 3,956 28%
Morocco 33,813 77,770 44,953 103,392 25,622 33%
Mozambique 43,862 100,883 56,982 131,059 30,176 30%
Myanmar 47,592 109,462 63,608 146,298 36,837 34%
Nepal 39,578 91,029 54,213 124,690 33,661 37%
Nicaragua 6,640 15,272 9,201 21,162 5,890 39%
Niger 50,183 115,421 60,956 140,199 24,778 22%
Nigeria 348,396 801,311 433,229 996,427 195,116 24%
Pakistan 238,538 548,637 314,272 722,826 174,188 32%
Papua New Guinea 11,887 27,340 15,330 35,259 7,919 29%
Peru 33,575 77,223 44,573 102,518 25,295 33%
Rwanda 23,105 53,142 29,074 66,870 13,729 26%
Senegal 25,150 57,845 32,298 74,285 16,440 28%
Sierra Leone 9,716 22,347 12,553 28,872 6,525 29%
Somalia 25,575 58,823 30,992 71,282 12,459 21%
United Republic of Tanzania 122,813 282,470 154,836 356,123 73,653 26%
Togo 9,703 22,317 12,665 29,130 6,813 31%
Uganda 83,580 192,234 105,617 242,919 50,685 26%
Yemen 54,390 125,097 69,227 159,222 34,125 27%
Zambia 40,485 93,116 49,841 114,634 21,519 23%
Zimbabwe 17,515 40,285 24,009 55,221 14,936 37%

Total # of health workers needed in 2050 across 57 crisis countries, low variant 9,497,993
Total # of health workers needed in 2050 across 57 crisis countries, high variant 12,425,035
Total % increase in health workers needed in 2050 across 57 crisis countries from low variant to high variant 31%

  1. United Nations. Population. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. http://esa.un.org/wpp/unpp/panel_population.htm (accessed September 16, 2011). Parameters selected: Population, all variants, start year of 2050, and end year of 2050.
  2. Calculated by applying the ratio of 2.3 health workers per 1,000 population to the UN population projections for 2050, low variant.
  3. Calculated by applying the ratio of 2.3 health workers per 1,000 population to the UN population projections for 2050, high variant.
  4. Difference between projected requirement of health workers in 2050 under high variant and projected requirement of health workers in 2050 under low variant.
  5. [Difference between projected requirement of health workers in 2050 under high variant and projected requirement of health workers in 2050 under low variant] / Requirement of health workers in 2050 under low variant
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